原标题：Making Digital Freemium Business Modelsa Success：Predicting Customers' Lifetime Value viaInitial Purchase Information
作者：Sebastian Voigt • Oliver Hinz
关键词：Freemium Digital business models; Customerlifetime value; Forecasting model
中文摘要：在数字化的免费商业模式中，比如在线游戏或社交应用这类app，企业总体收入中很大部分都是来自于很小部分的用户。所以经营类似这些业务的公司希望能够建立更多的预测模型，以便尽早识别潜在的高价值用户，并制定特殊的维系客户的策略，以满足这类用户的需求。在本篇研究中，作者分析了三家通过销售虚拟积分方式盈利的公司的用户消费数据，研究了初始购买信息在多大程度上可以用来计算客户的生命周期价值。研究发现，用户具有一下三种特征的是代表高价值用户：1.注册之后尽早购买的；2.在初次购买的时候花费很多；3.只用信用卡支付。此外，研究还发现，这些用户在随后的购买中往往会花更多的钱。
英文摘要：In digital freemium business modelssuch as those of online games or social apps, a large share of overall revenuederives from a small portion of the user base. Companies operating in these andsimilar businesses are increasingly constructing forecasting models with whichto identify potential heavy users as early as possible and create specialretention measures to suit those users’ needs. In our study, we observe threedigital freemium companies that sell virtual credits and investigate to what extentinitial purchase information can be used to determine a given customer’slifetime value. We find that customers represent higher future lifetime valuesif they (a) make a purchase early after registration, (b) spend a significantamount on their initial purchase, and (c) use credit cards to purchase credits.In addition, we see that users tend to spend increasing amounts on subsequent purchases.
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