ChatGPT们将如何影响职业和行业 How Will Language Modelers Like ChatGPT Affect Occupations and Industries.pdf
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How will Language Modelers like ChatGPT Affect
Occupations and Industries?
Ed Felten (Princeton)
Manav Raj (University of Pennsylvania)
Robert Seamans (New York University)
1 March 2023
Abstract: Recent dramatic increases in AI language modeling capabilities has led to many
questions about the effect of these technologies on the economy. In this paper we present a
methodology to systematically assess the extent to which occupations, industries and
geographies are exposed to advances in AI language modeling capabilities. We find that the top
occupations exposed to language modeling include telemarketers and a variety of post-secondary
teachers such as English language and literature, foreign language and literature, and history
teachers. We find the top industries exposed to advances in language modeling are legal services
and securities, commodities, and investments.
Keywords: artificial intelligence, ChatGPT, language modeling, occupation, technology
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1. Introduction
Artificial Intelligence (AI) will likely affect the economy in many ways, potentially boosting
economic growth and changing the way people work and play. The effect of AI on work will likely
be multi-faceted. In some cases, AI may substitute for work previously done by humans, and in
other cases AI may complement work done by humans. The effect on work will likely also vary
across industries. Recent research by Goldfarb et al (2020) document that adoption of AI is
relatively high in some industries such as information technology and finance, but low in others
such as health care and construction. Moreover, trying to understand how AI will affect work is
like trying to hit a moving target because the capabilities of AI are still advancing.
A prominent example of how AI capabilities continue to advance are the recent improvements in
AI language modeling. In particular, ChatGPT, a language modeler released by Open AI in late
2022, has garnered a huge amount of attention and controversy. Some worry about the negative
effects of tools like ChatGPT on jobs, as in the New York Post article headlined “ChatGPT could
make these jobs obsolete: ‘The wolf is at the door.’”
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Others see practical and commercial promise
from language modeling. For example, Microsoft announced a $10 billion partnership with Open
AI and has linked ChatGPT with its Bing search engine.
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Google felt compelled to demonstrate
its own language modeler, Bard, but mistakes during the demonstration led Google’s stock price
to drop 7%.
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ChatGPT has been banned by J.P. Morgan.
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However, at present, most of this is
speculation.
In order to better understand how language modelers such as ChatGPT will affect occupations,
industries and geographies, we use a methodology developed by Felten et al (2018, 2021). Felten
et al created the AI Occupational Exposure (AIOE) measure and used this measure to identify
which occupations, industries and geographies are most exposed to AI. In this paper, we describe
how the AIOE approach can be adapted to account for the recent advancement of language
modeling.
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https://nypost.com/2023/01/25/chat-gpt-could-make-these-jobs-obsolete/
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-01-23/microsoft-makes-multibillion-dollar-investment-in-
openai
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https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/08/alphabet-shares-slip-following-googles-ai-event-.html
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https://www.cbsnews.com/news/chatgpt-jpmorgan-chase-bars-workers-from-using-ai-tool/
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