汇丰银行-全球经济二季度展望-2017.3.25-110页.pdf

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Disclaimer & Disclosures: This report must be read with the disclosures and the analyst

certications in the Disclosure appendix, and with the Disclaimer, which forms part of it

https://www.research.hsbc.com

Play video with

Janet Henry

Global Economics

Drivers and riders

Amid the most synchronised global

upturn for years…

…China and the US are once again

the drivers of growth…

…while the world’s surplus

economies ride on their coat-tails

ECONOMICS

GLOBAL

Q2 2017

By: Janet Henry and James Pomeroy



ECONOMICS

●

GLOBAL

Q2 2017

More normal

Two US rate rises in three months. The last time that the Fed saw the need to take such action

was more than a decade ago in the first half of 2006. Little wonder then that talk of a return to

“normality” is rife. Global growth is picking up and inflation has risen. Inevitably there is a sense

that things are finally returning to a “more normal” environment whereby the extraordinary world

of near-zero rates and frequent doses of quantitative easing may no longer be required to

sustain even a mediocre expansion. A halt to ECB QE next year actually seems plausible.

The global cyclical upturn looks to be the most synchronised in years with even the likes of

Brazil and Russia finally turning up and some big improvements now evident in European

industry. But the demand drivers are familiar. Much of the market optimism relates to the US but

currently China seems to be supporting more of the world’s exports. These two countries are

once again the world’s growth engines while the surplus economies hitch a ride on their

coat-tails. So while near-term growth prospects continue to strengthen – and we expect

well-behaved inflation to allow the Fed to tread cautiously – the longer term implications of this

growth mix, if sustained, are likely to be less benign: ongoing imbalances, financial stability risks

and, if trade tensions intensify, renewed global growth concerns.

So far, so good

Plenty of political, geopolitical and policy uncertainties persist – not least the forthcoming French

elections – and changes in the world order will no doubt unfold in the coming years. But for now

there is no denying that the data globally have been better than expected. Our global growth

forecasts have edged up again: this quarter the upgrades include the emerging as well as the

developed world. The biggest upgrades are across Europe.

Key forecasts

__________________ GDP __________________

________________ Inflation _________________

____2016____

___2017f___

___2018f___

____2016____

___2017f___

___2018f___

World*

2.2

(2.2)

2.6

(2.5)

2.7

(2.6)

2.6

(2.6)

3.1

(3.0)

2.7

(2.7)

Developed

1.6

(1.6)

1.9

(1.7)

1.9

(1.8)

0.8

(0.8)

2.0

(1.9)

1.7

(1.7)

Emerging

3.8

(3.6)

4.2

(4.1)

4.6

(4.5)

4.2

(4.2)

3.9

(3.9)

3.5

(3.5)

1.6

(1.6)

2.3

(2.3)

2.7

(2.7)

1.3

(1.3)

2.4

(2.3)

2.0

(2.1)

China

6.7

(6.7)

6.5

(6.5)

6.5

(6.5)

2.0

(2.0)

2.3

(2.2)

2.1

(2.1)

Japan

1.0

(1.0)

1.3

(1.2)

0.6

(0.6)

-0.2

(-0.2)

0.9

(0.9)

1.1

(1.1)

India*

7.1

(6.3)

7.1

(7.1)

7.5

(7.6)

4.6

(4.7)

5.0

(5.0)

4.7

(4.6)

Eurozone

1.7

(1.6)

1.5

(1.2)

1.4

(1.3)

0.2

(0.2)

1.7

(1.6)

1.4

(1.3)

1.8

(2.0)

1.9

(1.2)

1.4

(1.3)

0.7

(0.6)

3.0

(2.8)

2.5

(2.6)

Russia

-0.2

(-0.5)

1.5

(1.0)

2.0

(1.5)

7.1

(7.1)

4.5

(4.7)

4.0

(4.0)

Brazil

-3.6

(-3.5)

0.8

(0.7)

3.6

(2.5)

8.8

(8.8)

4.3

(4.8)

4.0

(4.9)

Note: *GDP aggregates use chain nominal GDP (USD) weights and Inflation aggregates calculated using GDP PPP (USD) weights. **India data in fiscal year (2012 = April

2012 to March 2013). Parenthesis show forecasts from the Global Economics Quarterly Q1 2017 published in January.

Source: HSBC estimates.

Executive Summary

Synchronised but not

balanced

22 March – 28 April

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