人工智能与2030年的生活（英文版）.pdf

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ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE

AND LIFE IN 2030

ONE HUNDRED YEAR STUDY ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE | REPORT OF THE 2015 STUDY PANEL | SEPTEMBER 2016

PREFACE

The One Hundred Year Study on Articial

Intelligence, launched in the fall of 2014, is a

long-term investigation of the eld of Articial

Intelligence (AI) and its inuences on people,

their communities, and society. It considers

the science, engineering, and deployment of

AI-enabled computing systems. As its core

activity, the Standing Committee that oversees

the One Hundred Year Study forms a Study

Panel every ve years to assess the current state

of AI. The Study Panel reviews AI’s progress

in the years following the immediately prior

report, envisions the potential advances that

lie ahead, and describes the technical and

societal challenges and opportunities these

advances raise, including in such arenas as

ethics, economics, and the design of systems

compatible with human cognition. The

overarching purpose of the One Hundred Year

Study’s periodic expert review is to provide

a collected and connected set of reections

about AI and its inuences as the eld advances. The studies are expected to develop

syntheses and assessments that provide expert-informed guidance for directions in

AI research, development, and systems design, as well as programs and policies to

help ensure that these systems broadly benet individuals and society.

The One Hundred Year Study is modeled on an earlier eort informally known as

the “AAAI Asilomar Study.” During 2008-2009, the then president of the Association

for the Advancement of Articial Intelligence (AAAI), Eric Horvitz, assembled a

group of AI experts from multiple institutions and areas of the eld, along with

scholars of cognitive science, philosophy, and law. Working in distributed subgroups,

the participants addressed near-term AI developments, long-term possibilities,

and legal and ethical concerns, and then came together in a three-day meeting at

Asilomar to share and discuss their ndings. A short written report on the intensive

meeting discussions, amplied by the participants’ subsequent discussions with other

colleagues, generated widespread interest and debate in the eld and beyond.

The impact of the Asilomar meeting, and important advances in AI that included

AI algorithms and technologies starting to enter daily life around the globe, spurred

the idea of a long-term recurring study of AI and its inuence on people and society.

The One Hundred Year Study was subsequently endowed at a university to enable

“One Hundred Year Study on Articial Intelligence (AI100),” Stanford University, accessed

August 1, 2016,

https://ai100.stanford.edu.

The overarching purpose

of the One Hundred Year

Study’s periodic expert

review is to provide a

collected and connected

set of reﬂections about

AI and its inﬂuences as

the ﬁeld advances.

2 3

As one consequence of the decision to focus on life in North American cities,

military applications were deemed to be outside the scope of this initial report. This

is not to minimize the importance of careful monitoring and deliberation about

the implications of AI advances for defense and warfare, including potentially

destabilizing developments and deployments.

The report is designed to address four intended audiences. For the general public,

it aims to provide an accessible, scientically and technologically accurate portrayal

of the current state of AI and its potential. For industry, the report describes relevant

technologies and legal and ethical challenges, and may help guide resource allocation.

The report is also directed to local, national, and international governments to help

them better plan for AI in governance. Finally, the report can help AI researchers,

as well as their institutions and funders, to set priorities and consider the ethical and

legal issues raised by AI research and its applications.

Given the unique nature of the One Hundred Year Study on AI, we expect that

future generations of Standing Committees and Study Panels, as well as research

scientists, policy experts, leaders in the private and public sectors, and the general

public, will reect on this assessment as they make new assessments of AI’s future. We

hope that this rst eort in the series stretching out before us will be useful for both its

failures and successes in accurately predicting the trajectory and inuences of AI.

The Standing Committee is grateful to the members of the Study Panel for

investing their expertise, perspectives, and signicant time to the creation of this

inaugural report. We especially thank Professor Peter Stone for agreeing to serve as

chair of the study and for his wise, skillful, and dedicated leadership of the panel,

its discussions, and creation of the report.

Standing Committee of the One Hundred Year Study of Artiﬁcial Intelligence

Barbara J. Grosz, Chair Russ Altman Eric Horvitz

Alan Mackworth Tom Mitchell Deidre Mulligan Yoav Shoham

extended deep thought and cross-disciplinary scholarly investigations that could

inspire innovation and provide intelligent advice to government agencies and industry.

This report is the rst in the planned series of studies that will continue for at least

a hundred years. The Standing Committee dened a Study Panel charge for the

inaugural Study Panel in the summer of 2015 and recruited Professor Peter Stone,

at the University of Texas at Austin, to chair the panel. The seventeen-member

Study Panel, comprised of experts in AI from academia, corporate laboratories

and industry, and AI-savvy scholars in law, political science, policy, and economics,

was launched in mid-fall 2015. The participants represent diverse specialties and

geographic regions, genders, and career stages.

The Standing Committee extensively discussed ways to frame the Study Panel

charge to consider both recent advances in AI and potential societal impacts on jobs,

the environment, transportation, public safety, healthcare, community engagement,

and government. The committee considered various ways to focus the study,

including surveying subelds and their status, examining a particular technology

such as machine learning or natural language processing, and studying particular

application areas such as healthcare or transportation. The committee ultimately

chose a thematic focus on “AI and Life in 2030” to recognize that AI’s various uses

and impacts will not occur independently of one another, or of a multitude of other

societal and technological developments. Acknowledging the central role cities have

played throughout most of human experience, the focus was narrowed to the large

urban areas where most people live. The Standing Committee further narrowed the

focus to a typical North American city in recognition of the great variability of urban

settings and cultures around the world, and limits on the rst Study Panel’s eorts.

The Standing Committee expects that the projections, assessments, and proactive

guidance stemming from the study will have broader global relevance and is making

plans for future studies to expand the scope of the project internationally.

STUDY PANEL

Peter Stone, University of Texas at Austin, Chair

Rodney Brooks, Rethink Robotics

Erik Brynjolfsson, Massachussets Institute of Technology

Ryan Calo, University of Washington

Oren Etzioni, Allen Institute for AI

Greg Hager, Johns Hopkins University

Julia Hirschberg, Columbia University

Shivaram Kalyanakrishnan, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay

Ece Kamar, Microsoft Research

Sarit Kraus, Bar Ilan University

Kevin Leyton-Brown, University of British Columbia

David Parkes, Harvard University

William Press, University of Texas at Austin

AnnaLee (Anno) Saxenian, University of California, Berkeley

Julie Shah, Massachussets Institute of Technology

Milind Tambe, University of Southern California

Astro Teller, X

Acknowledgments: The members of the Study Panel gratefully acknowledge the

support of and valuable input from the Standing Committee, especially the chair,

Barbara Grosz, who handled with supreme grace the unenviable role of mediating

between two large, very passionate committees. We also thank Kerry Tremain for his

tireless and insightful input on the written product during the extensive editing and

polishing process, which unquestionably strengthened the report considerably.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

PREFACE

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4

OVERVIEW 6

SECTION I: WHAT IS ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE? 12

Deﬁning AI 12

AI Research Trends 14

SECTION II: AI BY DOMAIN 18

Transportation 18

Home/Service Robots 24

Healthcare 25

Education 31

Low-resource Communities 35

Public Safety and Security 36

Employment and Workplace 38

Entertainment 40

SECTION III: PROSPECTS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FOR AI PUBLIC POLICY 42

AI Policy, Now and in the Future 42

APPENDIX I: A SHORT HISTORY OF AI 50

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