intention and planning algorithm and the re-planning ability
of the system are also analyzed.
II. RELATED WORK
Human drivers analyze and anticipate the traffic situation.
In a similar manner, autonomous vehicles should integrate
a prediction of the behavior of other participants into their
driving task.
The problem of robots interacting on populated human
environments is not only focus of autonomous driving but
also point of interest of other robotic fields. Bennewitz et
al. [1] presented a method to predict the trajectories of per-
sons and improve the navigation behavior of a mobile robot.
Kuderer [2] and Kretzschmar [3] present a cooperative navi-
gation model for mobile robots interacting with pedestrians.
Nevertheless, when navigating on freeways and highways,
the topology is more structured and the velocities of the
traffic participants are higher, which requires consideration
of specific solutions.
In a near future, as presented by Hobert [4], the intercom-
munication between vehicles and infrastructure (V2X) will
allow to acquire a precise information about the intentions of
the traffic participants and the evolution of the situations. The
authors of [5] proposed an on-ramp merging system which
assessed the road traffic conditions and transmit the instruc-
tions to the vehicles on the surrounding area. The system
performs well but relies on an advanced infrastructure. V2X
technology presents encouraging results but the technology
is still not mature enough.
Thourought the last years several prediction methods for
traffic participants have been intensively studied in the lit-
erature. Different motion models like physic-based models,
maneuver-based models or interaction-aware based models
can be used for the prediction [6]. The integration of pre-
diction and intention information within the decision-making
process plays a crucial role in the system performance.
In [7] the authors compute the complete set of the
collision-free start and end points of trajectories for each
vehicle. This kind of intensive computations provide accurate
results in detriment of the online capability of the system.
Other strategies take the current most likely prediction and
rely on a continuous update of the available information and
fast re-planning system, as the multilevel planning system
presented by Men
´
endez-Romero et al. [8]. Carvalho et al. [9]
integrate the most likely cut-in prediction information to
improve the autonomous cruise control. The combination of
the most likely prediction with a fast re-planing works for
most of the situations quite well, but still does not consider
other possible interactions between the agents involved.
Iterative planning strategies combine the planning and pre-
diction tasks. Wei et al. [10] propose an intention prediction
based strategy generation. In [11] the authors suggest a game
theoretic approach which can model the re-planning capa-
bilities of the drivers. In [12] the decision-making is based
on Partially Observable Markov Decision Process (POMDP).
The multi-policy decision-making presented by Cunningham
et al. [13] also simulates the scene evolution using the most
likely evolution of the other agents involved in order to
reason about the policies. The problem with such iterative
planning approaches is that they only consider the most
likely evolution of the other traffic participants. Especially in
longer prediction horizons the model predictions can become
inaccurate and overlook some critical situations.
One step further, our proposed system not only anticipates
the behavior of other traffic participants to improve their own
safety but also plans a cooperative behavior to improve the
aggregate traffic comfort.
III. APPROACH
The objective of this work is to provide our system with
a courtesy behavior, which identifies the intention of other
traffic participants and assesses the cost of adapting the own
ego strategy. We achieve this by integrating an intention
prediction algorithm into the decision-making. Thereby we
gain a better foresight of the scene evolution by including
all possible outcomes to provide our system with robustness
over false predictions. Decisions are made based on maxi-
mizing the expected utility of the involved traffic participants.
A. Problem and Task Description
We semantically determine the possible actions for the
ego and the conflicting vehicle as shown in Tables I and II.
All possible ego actions are clustered as No Cooperative
(NC) and Cooperative (CO). Thus, the action space of
the ego vehicle is defined as A
eg o
:= {NC, CO}. For the
conflicting vehicle normal, courtesy and forced merge actions
are combined into the No Yield actions (N Y ), corresponding
to merging in front of the ego vehicle, and the Yield actions
(Y ). Thus, the action space of the conflicting vehicle is
defined as A
cv
:= {Y, NY }. The Cartesian product A =
A
eg o
× A
cv
defines the joint action space.
Our goal is to choose an action for the ego vehicle so that
the combined expected utility (U(a)) is maximized, i.e.,
a
∗
eg o
= argmax
a∈A
ego
E(U(a))
= argmax
a∈A
ego
X
a
cv
∈A
cv
p(a
cv
| a
eg o
) · U(a
eg o
, a
cv
).
(1)
This makes necessary to predict the intention of the merging
vehicle p(a
cv
| a
ego
), which is presented in the next sec-
tion. The description of the expected utilities is given in
Section III-C.
B. Prediction Module
In the state-of-the-art methods, the costs of actions are
computed for the most likely actions of other traffic partici-
pants. But these approaches lack the robustness against false
predictions. Our aim, on the other hand, is to predict the
probability of unlikely behavior of other traffic participants,
specifically the misprediction probability for the conflicting
vehicle. Using this probability we can compute the expected
utility of an ego action considering two possible decisions
of the conflicting vehicle.
In order to predict the probability of unlikely outcomes, we
use an ensemble learning based Gentle Boost classifier [14].
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