1.3 5G移动网络发展蓝图.pdf

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The Roadmap to 5G Mobile Networks (TE011 -001214) 14 Feb 2013

The Roadmap to 5G Mobile Networks

5G 移动网络发展蓝图

Academic research points the way towards the medium-term

future of the mobile industry

学术研究为移动通信行业的中期发展指明道路

Reference Code: TE011-001214

Publication Date: 14 Feb 2013

Author: Jeremy Green

Ovum is not liable for any perceived changes of meaning that may occur through translation, and that for the avoidance of doubt, the original

English version should be referred to for any discrepancies

Ovum不为任何翻译后可能造成的歧义负责，为避免疑义，任何意义分歧皆以英文原版为主。

SUMMARY 摘要

In a nutshell 核心概念

Forming a vision of the future and developing a roadmap on how to get there is a key task for the

wireless industry. Alongside vendors and operators, academics and researchers play an important role

in helping to define possible paths and alternative scenarios.

无线通信行业的一项关键任务是建立未来的目标愿景以及实现这一目标的路线图。除了厂商和运营商，

学者和研究人员在帮助确定可能的路径和替代方案方面亦发挥重要作用。

Ovum view Ovum 观点

Managing the vision of the future is an important task for the mobile telecoms industry. It is compelled to

live in the present, where contemporary issues sit alongside planning for future developments. As

William Gibson famously put it, the future is already here, it’s just not evenly distributed.

移动电信行业的一项重要任务是管理未来的愿景。它被迫顺应当前形势，既要面对当下的问题又要规划

未来的发展。正如 William Gibson 所言：“未来已经来临，只是还没有大行其道。”

Even as the impact of recent networking standards and technologies continues to play out, someone is

already working on the next generation of standards and specifications. While LTE – which has been

The Roadmap to 5G Mobile Networks (TE011 -001214) 14 Feb 2013

positioned as 4G – is only just becoming a commercial reality in many markets, work is already

underway on the underlying technology for 5G. Late in 2012, the British media made light of a report

that a 5G research center had been established at the Univers ity of Surrey. The media’s amusement

derived precisely from the observation that 4G was still a new technology, and that it was therefore

premature to be even thinking about 5G.

尽管最近的网络标准/技术的影响继续发挥作用，但业界已有人致力于发展下一代标准和规范。虽然被定

位为 4G 网络的 LTE 在很多市场上只是刚刚成为一个商业现实，但业界已经展开探索 5G 网络基础技术

的工作。在 2012 年底，英国媒体忽视了关于英国萨里大学已经建立 5G 技术研究中心的报道-这正是因

为媒体基于观察认为 4G 仍是一个新技术，因此考虑 5G 技术还为时过早。

In truth, the establishment of a 5G innovation center should not come as any great surprise.

Telecommunications has long since ceased to be a standalone industry and it now overlaps with the

media, consumer electronics, and IT industries. Each of these evolves at a rapid pace, and in doing so

place increasing demands on the infrastructure of connectivity. Were telecoms technology not to make

any attempt to anticipate the requirements of these complementary industries it would inevitably be a

perpetual disappointment. When work began on the specification that would eventually form the basis

for UMTS, few people had heard of the Internet and the World Wide Web did not exist. Creating a

mobile network that could handle data transmission, rather than simply increasing the capacity to carry

voice, was a significant leap of faith.

事实上，5G 技术创新中心的建立毫不奇怪。电信早已不再是一个独立的行业；它的业务现在与媒体，消

费电子产品和 IT 行业重叠。这些行业都在迅速发展，从而日益增加对连接基础设备的需求。如果不试图

预测这些互补性产业的需求，电信技术将不可避免地永久失败。在业界刚刚开始发展 UMTS（通用移动

通信系统）规范时，根本没有几个人听说过互联网和万维网的存在。创建一个能够处理数据传输的移动

网络（而不是简单增加传输语音的网络容量）是观念的一个重大飞跃。

Indeed, the time taken to move between generations seems to be shortening. There was a 15-year gap

between 2G and 3G, but only a 10-year gap between 3G and 4G. This suggests that 5G may be

needed more quickly than many suspect.

几代网络标准/技术之间实现迁移所需的时间似乎正在缩短。 2G 向 3G 技术转移花费了 15 年，但 3G 向

4G 技术迁移只用了 10 年。这表明 5G 技术问世所需的时间可能比许多人猜想的更短。

ANALYSIS 分析

5G is primarily about sustainability, not performance 5G 技术主要关注可持续发展，

而非性能

The 5G research center, which is established within the Centre for Communication Systems Research

in the University of Surrey’s Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences, is looking to address the

anticipated problems created by the shortcomings and the successes of 4G. Its director, Professor

of 10

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