The Next Decade in AI.pdf
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The Next Decade in AI:
Four Steps Towards Robust Artificial Intelligence
Gary Marcus
Robust AI
17 February 2020
Abstract
Recent research in artificial intelligence and machine
learning has largely emphasized general-purpose
learning and ever-larger training sets and more and
more compute.
In contrast, I propose a hybrid, knowledge-driven,
reasoning-based approach, centered around cognitive
models, that could provide the substrate for a richer,
more robust AI than is currently possible.
THE NEXT DECADE IN AI / GARY MARCUS
2
Table of Contents
1. Towards robust artificial intelligence 3
2. A hybrid, knowledge-driven, cognitive-model-based approach 8
2.1. Hybrid architecture 14
2.2. Large-scale knowledge, some of which is abstract and causal 24
2.3. Reasoning 36
2.4. Cognitive models 40
3. Discussion 47
3.1. Towards an intelligence framed around enduring, abstract knowledge 47
3.2 Is there anything else we can do? 51
3.3. Seeing the whole elephant, a little bit at a time 52
3.4 Conclusions, prospects, and implications 53
4. Acknowledgements 55
5. References 55
of 59
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